Commercial Real Estate Price Risk

This book analyzes current opportunities and challenges in hedging commercial real estate (CRE) values in the capital market. In contrast to other major asset classes, the market for commercial real estate derivatives is still in a nascent stage. However, with respect to the size and significance of commercial real estate, the demand for sound hedging tools is imperative. In this analysis, the focus is on office property in the United States as represented by the NCREIF Property Index (NPI). The findings suggest that office capital returns relate significantly to other factors in the economy. According to the most recent return experience from the real estate cycle, office capital returns can be explained to roughly 70% by the variation in other, mainly macroeconomic, factors. As regards the design of effective hedging strategies, the research provides evidence that the latest developments in real estate financial engineering already partly improved the hedging possibilities for investors, but also that more is needed in order to better capture the risks associated with an investment in office properties.